Zzot!

Since I posted predictions, I feel like I have to post a post-game summary as well:

Code Signing

Mostly correct. Your code must be signed to be distributed through iTunes, and Apple does intend to prevent you from distributing your app through any other channel. The difference is that you get your certificate as part of your (paid) iPhone Developer Program membership — and for less than you can usually get a code signing certificate.

Student / Hobbyist Developers

The text of my prediction was correct, but the spirit of it was wrong. You can, technically, develop your application without paying a penny to anyone — but only if you don’t intend to test it on a device.

Paid and Displayed

Same as above, basically. Apple created a new paid developer program, which wasn’t really what I meant.

Xcode

Partially correct. There are new tools, and some of the existing ones do get new tricks — but Apple seems to be throwing the whole mess of tools into this endeavor. Sure, Interface Builder isn’t in the current beta, but I totally didn’t expect Instruments to be included.

What’s in a name?

This was from a list of additional predictions I had that I thought weren’t worth posting an update or sequel post. This OS does get an official name — it’s referred to all through the docs as “iPhone OS”.

Here are some other interesting points from my reading so far:

• Xcode has its own list of devices (perhaps not surprising) that you have to add you device to by plugging it in with Xcode running.
• You create your code signing certificate using the Certificate Utility in Keychain Access, and then upload it to Apple’s servers (once you’ve joined the program), and then download the signed one and add it to Xcode.
• While you’re downloading stuff, you’ll need to download your Profile as well — to me this strongly implies that the exact nature of the restrictions is negotiable (at least they are for the really big fish).

• I love really specific qualifiers on informational pages:

  The iPhone Developer Program will initially be available to a limited number of developers in the U.S. and will expand to other countries in the coming months.

  Limited? I know your developer.apple.com totally screwed from the load after the announcement, but still. In the coming months? Gosh. Is that the same timeframe for when most of us would actually be permitted to join?

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Instead of trying to convince people next Wednesday that I was expecting whatever Apple’s announced the day before, I figured I’d blab my theories this Wednesday. Sure, it was, in fact, very early Thursday when I finally started typing this, but hey — I came up with this whole idea before midnight, and it’s the thought that counts, right?

Let me say up front, I don’t know anyone at Apple, and I don’t have the inside track on anything. I read whatever NetNewsWire finds for me and decide what I think is bull, just like everyone else. I’m also ignoring the backpedalling on whether this will still happen in February, since I really have no guess whether it’s actually delayed or not.

All that being said, here’s my thoughts on what we’ll hear about an iPhone SDK next week:

Code Signing

Everyone thinks there will be some kind of code signing. I think that you’ll need a real code-signing certificate from a recognized, trusted root to distribute your stuff through iTunes, and distribution through means other than iTunes will be “unsupported”.

Student / Hobbyist Developers

You’ll be able to develop applications with an Online membership to the developer program and without paying a tithe to Verisign for the previously mentioned certificate. Anyone who predicts you’ll be able to run your own code on your own device with Xcode and the cable you already have is right. See above for my guess about distributing your application once you’re done developing it.

Paid and Displayed

Professional developers (i.e., those who have paid ADC memberships) will get something extra. There are a lot of possibilities here, none of which I particularly like, but I think there will be something.

Xcode

There will be some new tools (i.e., the much-rumored simulator), and some existing ones will get new tricks. Some of the existing tools will not get any new tricks, and a large number of people will think everyone at Apple has their heads up their asses for for not including one of those tools in the iPhone toolkit.

Mind you, there’s more to developing good applications than being able to locate the “Build and Run” menu item on short notice. Especially on a mobile device, you have to live with your app to figure out if your interface blows, and that includes trying to use it and trying to not get hit by a bus at the same time. The bus service in my office sucks, no matter how wide I leave the door open. I would expect Apple to know this,¹ but I’m not counting on them doing anything about it.

Casualties

Several Cocoa developers will be attacked in the coming weeks and sustain minor injuries. The weapons involved in these otherwise unrelated cases will include assorted handheld electronic devices, a stapler (used as a blunt object), three books, and an extremely unfortunate Carbon developer who was at the wrong place at the wrong time.

After an intense investigation, the police will break the case when they reexamine the evidence and realize that the handheld electronic devices consist almost entirely of Palm m505s, Tungsten|C’s, and a variety of Treo devices from different carriers. The assailants will all turn out to be former members of the Palm developer program who were driven over the edge by offhanded remarks about how much harder it is to develop without “using something called ‘Interface Builder’”.

I probably had a couple more items in mind when I started this, but that’s all I can remember. Hopefully the others weren’t the really insightful ones. Now comes the highly suspenseful waiting to find out just how ludicrously off-base I am.

1. and no, I don’t mean that I can’t catch a bus in my office [↩]

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